Great economic upheavals are the engines of social transformation. Every dark cloud offers the consolation of refreshing rain, and from the ashes of the oil age we witness the green shoots of renewable energy emerging. As we bear testament to the decline and fall of virtual money, we welcome the re-evaluation of social labour. As the sun sets upon the culture of the all-consuming individual, we herald the rebirth of the sharing, caring community. The turmoil of the past two years and all that will transpire is in a sense inevitable, as economics, society and nature are as inseparable as they are interdependent. Any impact that we have upon the environment of our shared planet will ultimately reverberate within our economies and societies, whether this is due to rising oceans, falling fish stocks, or vanishing coal supplies. This essential truth is as simple to demonstrate as it is impossible to quantify. For instance, in a recession any sharp increase in energy prices will impact upon manufacturers, leading to increased prices, the closure of retail outlets, and a growth in online purchases as consumers forage for bargains. A social economist needs no crystal ball to predict that rising sea levels and global populations will put pressure upon land use and food production. This will inevitably result in escalating land prices and lead to a greater popularity of communal housing and high rise apartment blocks. As population pressures grow so meat prices are driven up, resulting in a fall in the consumption of animal protein that has forced many animal farmers out of business and shifted farm production from grazing to soybean production. Across the world, declining agricultural employment has led to a migration towards the cities, swelling their populations and heightening competition for jobs. On one hand this acts to depress median incomes, while on the other it raises the basic cost of city living. Such natural pressures are resulting in a steady drift towards community living as families and individuals club together to share resources and to reduce costs. It is perhaps ironic that the rise of 20th Century corporate capitalism and the recent economic crisis should ultimately give rise to a new socialism by accident rather than design.
So where will all the turbulence of the last few years leave us, and what will it mean for our way of life? Assuming that the planet does not engage in another catastrophic war, the appearance of our world twenty years from now is surprisingly predictable. Exhibitors are busy showing off the next generation of electric and micro cars; governments are attempting to spend their way out of recession with vast renewable energy and public transport projects; while CCTV cameras, satellites, and high speed broadband networks start to make our 'seven degrees of separation' seem ever narrower.
While communal living is scarcely a novel concept, it is an effective solution, although many of its benefits were forgotten after a century in which transport, housing and consumerism were highly individualized. Take a moment to reflect how bizarre 20th Century history will appear to future generations. They will stare at images of solitary individuals driving thousands of miles in large heavy metal vehicles in disbelief, imagining a time when it was acceptable to waste such precious resources; they will stare in amazement as small groups of executives hover above the tops of tall city buildings in giant metallic insects; they will look in wonder at old footage of vast herds of uniformed people migrating across cities shortly after sunrise and before sunset, and laugh at pictures of groups staring intently at a giant box in the corner of the room. They will be dumbfounded at the sheer futility of endless snakes of brightly colored cars winding their way slowly along the corridors of old capitals. How strange it will seem to them that we had not yet realized that we could propel lighter plastic vehicles with electricity, or that we could share the space within them to reduce congestion. They will gaze at their small hand-held screens in amazement that we once occupied an entire living space with a box just to project sound & vision. They will not comprehend that we once journeyed for hours to large venues merely to drink and socialize with strangers. Why did they waste so much precious time during an era when instantaneous interpersonal communication was widely available, and when more intimate meetings with friends could be scheduled in a matter of moments? Above all, they will be shocked that a few select individuals once privately occupied such large detached dwellings so far away from others. How could a small elite have retained so much personal space on such a densely populated planet? How could they have lived so far from public transport and from communities and services? In a world where demand for land will become increasingly intense, it will seem scarcely possible that so few once occupied so much space so unproductively.
As office blocks empty, jobs are shed, and wages continue to fall through the current depression, dreams of 20th Century prosperity will give way to the need to maintain a foothold or pied-à-terre within our capitals of opportunity. As a greater proportion of jobs are created within the service, media and technology sectors, so young people will flock to large towns and cities in search of education, income and future prosperity. Falling property prices and a stagnant real estate sector have contributed to a booming rental market as the harsh economic climate forces people to cohabit to balance rising costs and diminishing budgets. Paradoxically this will lead to an improved standard of living. Communities tend to share resources and living space, making them socially richer rather than poorer. The 'retail therapy' of 20th Century life will be superseded by social comforts and activities, as communities share costs and problems. Developers are quickly catching on to this trend, and are actively building new community housing and converting former apartment and office blocks into shared dwellings. Facilities once associated with affluence will become standard features within apartment blocks and city developments, including swimming pools, Jacuzzis, saunas and gyms, principally because such expensive and space-consuming features become far less so when shared between large social groups. Living rooms will become home theatres, kitchens will expand to accommodate larger groups of diners, and people will learn to have more for less simply by sharing. Although this concept is nothing new to the wealthier inhabitants of American cities who have long enjoyed such resources within condominium ('condo') and co-operative ('co-op') buildings, such upmarket apartments still retain extensive and luxurious private quarters. The coming residential 'glasnost' will see apartments once designed for individuals being redeveloped to include communal dining and living areas.
Perhaps the biggest change for the coming generation will be in how they travel. Government driven infrastructure projects and the compelling need for renewable energies will augur more electric trains and the appearance of the first maglev trains in the West. Rail networks will recover their former glory, and air travel will slowly decline together with fossil fuels as video conferencing, rail travel, airships and cruise liners replace the most popular form of 20th Century travel.
As for the automobile, a host of factors including congestion charging, parking, increased taxes, rising petrol prices, and a reduced availability of city parking will quickly drive the petrol-driven metal dinosaur to extinction. Commercial freight traffic will return to rail and waterways, while individuals will commute using ever lighter electric cars and scooters. This personal transport revolution will make it much safer for cyclists and pedestrians to return to urban centers and they will do so in great numbers. As cities are released from the reign of terror of the automobile, people will once again venture from the safety of pavements and sidewalks into expansive open areas that have been converted from roads into bars and cafés. Hanging flower baskets will replace traffic lights, and people will be able to travel more freely and in greater safety across city centers.
It is not all good news however. Big government and the spies of industry will increasingly collaborate to compile ever more detailed records of our credit histories, including what we buy, where we go, and who we see, and these faceless entities will feel no moral or legal impediment to selling such personal information to employers or other vendors. The next two decades will finally see the sun set upon the age of personal privacy. Our movements will be tracked by retinal scanners, our identities verified by DNA analysis, and we will all be required to bear personal data on 'ID cards' or implanted chips. The pervasive nature of webcams and CCTV means that our urban movements, on average, are presently recorded over a hundred times a day. Further, all our Internet activity will be automatically logged, and our Emails and mobile phone conversations monitored at will. Individuals are no longer at liberty to exercise their free will beyond authorized spending limits or their capacity to afford legal advice or a remote country estate. The era of the free spending, free speaking and freely roaming individual has already come to an end, it's just that don't realize it until we apply for a credit card, a mortgage, a job, or find that our personal communications have been intercepted along with our plans. As big brother becomes ever more omnipresent it will be time for us to draw the curtains, screen our apartments for spy cams, and wear a hood whenever possible outdoors.
The 20th Century age of materialism has ended in a great depression. However, from the gloom will arise a more caring, sharing Western civilization. By sacrificing independence for interdependence, we will all need to work less and be able to enjoy ourselves more. Slowly we will cease to aspire to the lavish lifestyles and material largesse of high society and begin to embrace the strength and happiness afforded by the sharing of space, possessions and the experiences of our lives. Instead of swimming like restless sharks, consumed by the interminable need to be busy, we will instead be preoccupied with leading a more harmonious, natural and gregarious existence. Community living will enrich the quality of our lives, spawning a cultural revolution of new art and social activities. The relentless refinement and expansion of broadband networks and advanced communication technologies will mean that even though you may not be able to afford to venture out as often in future, you'll never feel alone...